Sunday, January 21, 2018

Demographic Update

2017 was a game-changing year. We have seen Unionism loose it's majority for the first time since the formation of the gerrymandered sectarian state. We have seen an end of Nationalist apathy. For the first time ever, we have had opinion polls showing a plurality of 48% in favour of Irish Unity as opposed to 45% support for staying in the United Kingdom in the event of a hard Brexit. The same poll showed that among 18-44 year olds a clear majority of 56% are in favour of Irish Unity and less than 34% in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom. We have had the first stage of the Brexit negotiations where the Irish Government has put it up to Arlene Foster as the UK commits economic suicide. Recently we have seen leaked revised proposals from the Boundary Commission, which show us that gerrymandering has not gone away. All of these events are related to changing demographics in the North.

The census is only published once every 10 years but there are publications each which give us an insight to changes in demographics on a yearly basis. The Schools Census/School Enrolment Statistical Bulletins which give an annual breakdown of the religious composition of 5 to 18 year olds. The Labour Force Survey gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age and general population aged over 16 years old. The Equality Commission Monitoring Report also provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce year on year.

The Schools Census for the year 2017/2018 is usually published in February. I will update this blog when it is published. The graph below shows the trend from 2000 to 2016.

The Labour Force Survey Religion Report showing the 2016 will be published on 31st January. I will update the graphs below once the data is released.

The Equality Commission Monitoring Report No 27 for 2016 has been published. At the time of writing the website is down so I will update the Applicant and Appointee tables once it is back up.

There is a very strong correlation between voting preference and demographics in the North. The trends are clear. There is a Catholic plurality in the North and there will soon be more people voting for Nationalists than Unionists. We have entered the final stage of the Endgame In Ulster.